Instead, like an idiot, I loaded up on Seagate, thinking that since I was sure it would exceed all estimates, that the stock would go up. Instead, it exceeded all estimates, by a mile, and the stock is going down anyway.
Why do you think the market is smart and you're an idiot?
Is Seagate catering to HDD MP3?
MIC forecast: global demand for 56.28 million MP3 players this year
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Jimmy Hsu, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DigiTimes.com [Friday 29 April 2005]
The global demand for MP3 players, flash-based and HDD-equipped (hard disk drive) in the aggregate, will reach 56.28 million units this year, according to projections made and released on April 27 by the Market Intelligence Center (MIC) under the government-sponsored Institute for Information Industry (III).
Of the projected demand volume for 2005, North America will account for 33%, followed by western Europe with 22%, China with 10%, South Korea and Japan each with 6%, Taiwan with 2%, the other markets with 18% in total.
MIC projection of global demand volume of MP3 players (million units, with year-on-year growth in parentheses)
2003 actual
2004 actual
2005 forecast
2006 forecast
2007 forecast
2008 forecast
Flash-based
13.38
24.80 (85.4%)
38.45 (55.0%)
46.84 (21.8%)
53.52 (14.3%)
57.98 (8.3%)
HDD
2.58
10.12 (292.2%)
17.83 (76.2%)
24.07 (35.0%)
30.38 (26.2%)
37.11 (22.2%)
Aggregate
15.96
34.92 (118.8%)
56.28 (61.2%)
70.91 (26.0%)
83.90 (18.3%)
95.09 (13.3%)
Source: MIC, compiled by DigiTimes, April 2005
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