I read their latest comments, and they both seem to be consistent to me. The excess TIOs will be coming off over the next week or so.
4-29 5
5-3 19
5-5 14
5-6 5
5-12 8
5-18 3
I put a little more credence into those coupon passes, because those are permanent. They were due for one, but they did two, so bears watching, if this were to continue. The other story is the disappearance of the FCBs (the lifeblood of the Mr. Creosote maladjusted Bubble economy) over the last four weeks.
4-7 -1,661
4-14 -730
4-21 -281
4-28 +1,809
The big items the last two weeks in the COTs, were the big reductions in the commercial positions in the notes and bonds. They are still quite long EDs, so this suggest to me that the longer dates will widen relative to the short dates. It doesn't quite look like a monster trade yet, but the timing for a long 2, short 10 or 30, looks close. 2/10 spread is down to only 55 bps.
This is a bizarre market, probably to be expected when the Wizards have blatantly encouraged run away moral hazard behavior, and entrenched financial culture casino behavior. It dies hard, and the Pig Men seem almost desperate in their attempts to ramp things back up. There is an incredible amount of rumor and game playing, all the MOPs are in overdrive, and it would be wise to put most of it in the garbage out file. It's hard to figure day to day, especially from internet cafes in Turkey, but just as well I think. I sticking with my A-B-C pattern. If I had to SWAG it, I'd guess we see a penetration through the 1163-1165 SPX resistance everybody and his brother is watching. The 34 day MA should cap it, note that as time passes this is dropping.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b34][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
That should work to bull trap more cognoscenti and Bullies, before the next downdraft. |
