My View Expressed in That Post Has Changed Only in My
Cynicism about a May rally. I'm still willing to predict it, smirk at it when it comes, but, I'm less willing now to actually bet on it.
For me, a tremendous amount depends on Tuesday, as to whether the Fed blinks, stays the same, or really puts the screws to the market and "inflation." Market reaction will be like a whole event unto itself afterward, with its own "effect" as in we will study "what the markets did" immediately afterward.
Since I am saying things now like "alot depends on Tuesday", that, in itself, is a sign to me that my whole focus has tightend up considerably. I'm no longer thinking in years and months. It's down to days. Weeks at best.
My longer term structural views of the US economy--as one headed for serious trouble--ran, into its own roadblocks post the election, because I began to see that the world flooded with dollars was having an effect with a much, much longer Wave, than I had been thinking. In other words, I reversed my view for the time being, and started believing that Armageddon (actually, let's call it the Mud Slide into the hole) had been forestalled. While I still think I "may" be right about that, and while I still conjecture that the global economy is experiencing an Echo Boomlet to the massive low interest rates set in motion several years ago, I must say things are moving along very quickly here towards the dark side.
What has me irked is that my views are now oscillating really fast. I don't like that. I'm also very concerned because I see the chance now that the whole Hurricane, which we've all talked about on this board may be unfolding. It's not just the stock market. It's every market. I see it everywhere, as I'm sure you do.
Anyway, "talking" about it for 12+ months on this board, and with friends and other traders was alot more "fun" than actually sensing it may finally be here.
Coda: and where is Gold at this particular hour? Gold should be stepping up to the plate. But the gold advocates are in mortal terror, right here.
If Crude can stay under 50.00 for 4 weeks, we will have a strong "the market and economy have been saved!" theme to run with and will likely scare the hell out of Early Shorts. But I'll tell ya, these markets looks Ornery. They looks like they're ready to Fade the bejesus out of any "good" news whatsoever. Crude under 50.00? Fed Blinks and softens language or gives hint of pause? These markets look like their ready to outfox just about everybody.
Regards,
LP |
