Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: shades who wrote (63080)	4/30/2005 10:12:34 PM
From: Slagle	Read Replies (3) of 74559

Shades, Re: Phil/Cramer ect. I probably watch way too many financial shows but I may have discovered something and I want your opinion. You are aware of the Cramer idea that financials are the best sector in that he thinks (or maybe hopes and prays) that the Fed will stop raising rates soon and when they do the big banks and related stocks will fly. You are also aware of the Phil theory that money is already moving out of energy and into the financials. From a chart of the XLE and XLF there appears to be some validity to the Phil theory. A rally of some limited duration is probably coming soon and with the Fed Tuesday, depending on what they do I think the Cramer idea that financials will lead is likely, they have been strong lately, even FNM which may be more housing than financial just "feels" strong. I noticed something peculiar on the Saturday money shows, notably "bullcrap and bearcrap on Fox on the weekend" (per Phil) that although most of the talking heads were pretty bullish for the short term NONE of them were pumping the financials like they usually are. Now I know that some of these guys are big bulls on these financial stocks, and fairly recently too but just not this weekend. They were pumping all kinds of stocks but not a single financials. Tobin Smith says DOW/NAZ will go to 10500/2050 and if so thats quite a rally. Then it occurred to me that these guys may be engaging in one of the little collusions that Phil accuses them of, that of encourageing the public to "buy at the top"? And if they are, are they simply waiting for the financials to run a bit and THEN encourage the public to buy financials next week or maybe next months AFTER the run is largely over? What do you think? Slagle

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