<<Can you tell us exactly when this bear market began and when it will end, so that everyone can buy the bottom?>
You got things a little mixed up here, Dale: Firstly, I'm no money manager, nor a Market Timer, as I have a lot more important things to do during the course of the day than to limit myself watching the tape and browsing through charts. I am quite interested in the fundamentals of the global economy, however, and these markets do represent an important leaf from my life, as I do invest and trade these markets on occasion.
I would define a true bear market as one in which every asset class under the sun underperforms Cash. From March/April 2000 to October 2002, value stocks rallied strongly. These were the stocks that grossly underperformed the indices (and growth stocks)from the fall of 1998 to March 2000. So, I don't think there has even been a real Bear Market up to this point in time. This year may prove to be the exception. Whenever I'm uncertain about market direction, I look at the bond market. And the story there does not look very good for equities. I'm quite concerned about those low yields on the long end in the face of Fed Tightening. The Bond market (along with T-bill yields and corporate yields), is trying to make a statement and very few are paying attention.
Only the most nimble and astute money managers will make money in this environment. Even those who understand the current market environment will have problems.
<My portfolio is up 180% since 1/1/00. I will take that over the returns from cash.>
You don't say. How is the weather in South Africa? |
