Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (5153)	9/5/1997 9:46:00 PM
From: Craig Gordon	of 9285

Dear Roger: I always enjoy your viewpoint and look forward to reading it everyday although I don't post often. I believe that the market is headed for a fall in October. Here's why. 1. The volatility has increased which is typical for the late stages of a bull market. 2. The recent rotation of money from the large caps into the small caps is also typical of a bull with tired legs. The money is seeking a better value. When the large caps and the small caps are no longer worth it the whole thing will either go on an extended snooze sideways or a dump. 3. The 2nd half of the 7th year of the last 5 decades has been the absolute worst time to be long in the market. There is a big history here. Hirsh wrote DON'T SELL STOCKS ON MONDAY and it makes for very interesting reading. Only time will tell which way the market will go. Personally I think we are in for a blind side suprise. Possibly a war in the middle east. Maybe even the detonation of one of the 150 loose Russian nuclear bombs that fit in a suitcase. Sorry to sound so pessimistic, just trying to anticipate what could set off a big down move.

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