Great response.
Did IC sales actually soar?
Because I am traveling I don't have unit volume numbers yet but I will have them shortly - as you know I track Monolithic Integrated Circuits - the stuff that is driven by leading edge technology - just like most of the good forecasters do. My bet is that this bounced, as it alway does at the end of a quarter. We'll see and I will post a chart when I get the data.
To say the first quarter is traditionally slow flies in the face of the data posted in the first two quarters of last year. Maybe we are seeing a bit of a different script in terms of production and consumption. Last year we peaked in Q2 - with Q1 posting results, as I measure them, not too far behind. I expect a similar pattern to emerge this year.
If things are so great on the IC front why are WW bookings for capital equipment down so much for Q1? If measured by SEMI's SEMS data - which, at least in the first two months of this year, bookings are off almost 14%. If you add in the weak or flat to slightly down forecasts from many this quarter I can see where spending could be down 20%. And, if the people that I am talking to are right, it might be worse.
This is why Wall Street is bearish. It's pretty obvious that the industry is in another rough spot.
PC growth, while it may be smaller, is still an important part of the chip industry's future. Its contribution to the IC business has been hovering around 40% for the past few years. If that growth rate slows the industry has a problem.
Intel is spending more money, we know that, and we know they are a counter-cycle spender. The foundries are a real problem. Based on what they spent in 2004 they added almost 25% more capacity and are slated, in 2005, to add 30% more. I believe that outstrips the growth rate of the industry and it hurts the supply-demand equation. JMHO.....
To borrow one of your lines, "I am curious to know what questions you would have for the companies that are more insightful than those asked on conference calls?"
If you have questions that you would like to have answered maybe I can help. Send them to me I will forward them on to my friends in the industry to see if they will answer. If they do, I will post their answers here.
Gottfried's upgrade/downgrade chart tells me little. How many analysts are in this survey? Is it all of the people that follow AMAT or those that are just quoted in the press?
Believe me, I am not playing apologist for the analysts. I am just saying that people on this thread under-estimate their analytical skills - whether they be from iSuppli, Wall Street or any other firm.
You have to admit, those that are bearish have been correct about the direction of the stocks.
Carl
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