Crossy,
What's your current take on the state of oil pricing and the affect on your investments? We've got the two extremes with Goldman ($100 oil spike possible), and Bears Stearns analyst Frederick Leuffer says $25 oil. We have many so-called experts going both ways on this to lesser degrees. Some of this is most likely political and some is honest analysis to the best of thier knowledge and ability.
Does any of this cause you any concern or are you content to just hold and rely on the prospects and performance of companies such as DNO.OL, ARD, ENG.V, TMY, PVL.V, SE.V, ENMFF.PK, TRGL, PVL.V, ENM.TO, etc. Investing in many of these is projecting long term and it seems hard to know what will happen in oil pricing. It seems as if demand will outstrip supply as time goes by but then some people have probably been thinking that for the last 20 years.
It does not seem that big oil companies, ones with the large USD resources available, are very concerned about investing in new finds or refining. Part of that may be global political situations and instabilities right now . Part may be that they just do not see any encouraging locations to drill...so they sit on cash.
I know that you watch oil futures and the current state of contango. I'm sure you factor in other items also. I understand that this is the time of year that it is not unusual for inventories to rise but the CNBC types will tend to bring people on that act as if this inventory buildup is signaling the end of oil in the $50 range. Oil inventories reported tomorrow will probably indicate an increase which will again drive prices down. From your point of view is it just as well to weather this negative environment for now and just ignore and hold, waiting for summer, fall, and winter to drive the prices back up again.
I realize that you have no crystal ball.
Badog |
