Gold: When I see a prospective TL hit this many times, I start to anticipate that it will soon fail:
ttrader.com
Hit a prospective TL for the third time, and the probability of a turn is good.
Hit is the fourth, fifth, sixth times, the probability of it holding improves.
Hit it more than that, and the probability of holding starts to decrease again. Couple that with HUI giving up the similar line, and I think this bounce in gold will be short-lived.
Couple that with declines in steel and oil, a Fed ostensibly worried about inflation, bond strength, and the likelihood of a recession looming on the horizon, and I think a decent case can be made for the return of the deflation threat.
30-years are back at 4.5% again, only been lower very short periods:
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyiay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Flattening 30/10:
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyiay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
BC |
