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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Sergio H who wrote (21235)5/4/2005 6:19:26 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) of 78666
 
re: automotive market. Nothing at current price stands out as a clear buy to me.

Maybe Pep Boys? Stock's come down, but it's also been much lower too. And cheaper on a p/sales basis.

I've added to my small Toyota (TM) position under $74, and may continue to do so, if stock falls.

I have losing positions in DRRA and SUP. I'm not adding at this time.

In general I prefer the auto retailers over the auto manufacturers. Although I've trimmed my positions in all the stocks that I've been holding in this subsector, I may add back to ABG if the stock drops below $14 again. ABG seems to stress luxury and mid-line import brands, and these seem to be more popular, hence profitable. (Or so I am led to believe from the annual report.)

I like auto insurers, and I'm holding positions in several. I see that DRCT on today's new lows list is a writer of "non-standard" policies. I'll consider the stock. I like non-standard because often-times the policy pricing is not so fixed by the regulators as with standard policies. Car purchases can be postponed; not auto insurance (if one complies with insurance requirements).

Not a value play, but maybe GM is worth a speculative short. Very dangerous to bet against Mr. Kerkorian, but troubles at GM - health and pension - seem intractable. Product seems to me to be very weak also. OTOH, if Kerkorian gains control (that's not likely at this point, imo) and he installs somebody with the skills/charisma like he did at Chrysler - perhaps like luring away Ghosen from Renault/Nissan - the stock could gain ten points in a day.
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