Looking again at long-term trends, and taking our favorite QQQQ as an example, let's put the regression channel and the bull market into perspective. I think you'll see why I say it will take decades to get us back to the highs of 2000 on a sustainable basis.
Here's the long-term regression channel using the weekly chart:
139.142.147.218
Now here's the same regression channel settings using a monthly chart with a 5-year time frame:
139.142.147.218
Let's assume we maintain the current bull market indefinitely; a highly dubious assumption, but let's just imagine anyhow.
So, how long will it take for this market to regain the highs of 2000?
On the above weekly chart, you can see that the regression channel is rising at the rate of roughly $5 per year. At that rate, the upper regression channel rail, currently at about $46, will require approximately 13 years to reach 110, and the lower rail, currently at almost $35, will require 15 years to reach $110. Similarly, the middle of the regression channel will require 14 years.
We don't know where in the channel QQQQ might be trading at that time, but we can conclude this:
IF we maintain the current bull market for 13 - 15 more years, then the MINIMUM time required for QQQQ to reach the highs of 2000 will be 13 years, and the MAXIMUM time required will be 15 years.
But I think it highly unlikely that we will maintain this bull market for anything close to that time period. Instead, I expect an intervening trend change from a long-term uptrend to a long-term downtrend (then back again); this will considerably slow the overall long-term advance of QQQQ.
So, my projections are considerably longer than 13 - 15 years; 20 years is more reasonable IMHO. Even 20 years may be overly optimistic, but I think that's about the best we can reasonably hope for.
T |
