Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 223.95

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Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (14768)	5/5/2005 1:08:15 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (3) of 25522

Robert, the note the chart peak cycles....looks like a minor peak (or trough)every 12-18 months and a major peak every 4 years.... If the cycle timing holds, as it appears from a historical perspective, then chip sales will follow the global economic chart... in other words, if the global economy slows we can expect global chip sales to decline from recent peaks. This is reinforced by projections from foundries of declining utilization, declining equipment purchases, and general belt tightening. There is a reason that IBM is cutting 13K jobs in Europe, expect more cuts from other low growth regions and from other international corporations, IMO. With GM and GMAC bonds being cut to junk status and F bond rating also at junk status it bodes ill for domestic US economic expansion as layoffs, plant closures, support infrastructure industries suffer....it still points to a US and global economic slowdown. Not the time to be adding new money to the markets or chip equip stocks, IMO.

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