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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 223.95+1.7%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Big Bucks who wrote (14770)5/5/2005 3:20:49 PM
From: etchmeister  Read Replies (2) of 25522
 
My point was that Q1 2005 is being touted as a downturn; as Cary once pointed out even in 2001 there was still unit growth - hence I believe the swings (IC sales) are a function of ASP's and ASP's are a function of supply and demand.
Though global growth might have an impact I believe the large swings are mainly a function of ASP (IC sales= unitsxASP)
Back in 2001 TSMC's u-rate tanked all the way to 41%.
Take a good look at UMC's and TSMC's capex back in 2004 and than compare the topline of TSMC and UMC and you will get a better understanding why UMC's u-rates are so low.
Overall u-rates on a global base notched up to 85% in March up fron 79% in Jan and 82% in Feb according to VLSI.
IC are proliferated to a greater extend with regards to end markets (by application as well as region) and the applications as well the different regional markets do not move in synch compared to 10 years ago when DRAM and CPU were the key driver.
Flash in particular NAND (though smaller compared to DRAM) is doing much better than DRAM.
Though DRAM pricing took a huge hit in Q1 2005 other segments must have done better because global IC sales did not tank - they probably would have tanked if there would be only DRAM and CPU.
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