Perhaps we don't need a crash afterall - Just another forecast but it shows some people fiddling around with numbers.
if we are really at 85% (u-rates) and very little inventory things could become interesting (supposedly we approaching the slow summer season though it's raining pretty good today). Also from booking, billing to full production it takes 6 to 9 months
From: Bruno Cipolla 5/5/2005 4:06:42 PM
of 28147
Firm now sees 18% growth - not minus 3% - for ICs in '05
Mark LaPedus
(05/05/2005 1:28 PM EDT)
URL: eetimes.com
SAN JOSE, Calif. — Research firm IC Knowledge has dramatically revised its semiconductor forecast for 2005, saying the market will grow by 17.6 percent this year — as opposed to minus 2.7 percent.
Total IC revenues were originally expected to fall by 2.7 percent this year, from $178.6 billion in 2004 to $173.8 billion in 2005, according to IC Knowledge (Georgetown, Mass.) in January..
Now, the research firm has switched gears and revised the forecast based on stronger-than-expected average selling prices (ASPs) for ICs. "We further expect ASPs to increase from $1.70 in 2004 to $1.84 for 2005, resulting in a net increase in total IC revenue from $178.6 billion dollars for 2004 to $210.1 billion dollars for 2005, a 17.6 percent increase," said Scott Jones, president of the research firm, in a report.
"We currently expect total IC units in 2005 to grow to 114.2 billion units from 104.9 billion units in 2004," Jones said. "Due to the increased unit growth we now expect new 300-mm capacity to be better absorbed by the industry. Although we expect mid to low eighty percent utilization for Q1, we expect utilization to recover to the mid nineties as the year progresses."
Jones is among the most optimistic analysts in the arena. Most forecasters are looking at flat-to-negative growth in 2005. European market research firm Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England) recently re-iterated its prediction that the semiconductor market will grow by 15 percent in 2005 to produce annual sales of $245 billion. |
