I've been up since about 4am thinking about ACTV. Last week when we
had the high volume and the preffered's had good reason for the stock
to start moving upward I couldn't wait for this week to begin. Now
the stock is down about 25% from that level. I always had a feeling
the stock was being manipulated for a few obvious reasons: 1) The
average August share price. 2) No matter how high the volume, the stock
never moved upward. 3) With all the positive news the stock just kept
going down. Seems like everytime we wait for a news event to raise
the price it just doesn't happen.
Now I'm think about the roll out. We've been waiting on this news since
last May and it still hasn't happened. I know that it's now supposed
to be a done deal, but I think they were having trouble getting investors
and the deal is not going to be all it was cracked up to be. In addition,
I don't think we're going to see a dramatic rise in the stock price
for a few reasons: 1) The preferred's will probably take profit and
push the stock back down. 2) Although there are 5 million subscribers
their regular cable subscribers and not all sports junkies. They're
looking for 10% market penetration and need 175k subscribers to breakeven
in each region. 3) Out of the 5 million subscribers probably less
than 10% have digital boxes to date. Do the math.
In order for the preferred's to make good money they either have to have
people buying the stock or need the company to have significant
earnings. The earnings seem far away yet. If anything their going to
lose money initially with the roll-out. Some of the preferred's may
not want to wait a few years. In order for them to make good money,
with their built in 30% profit, they need people to keep buying the
stock. I think we got a taste of that this past week. In addition,
they drove the stock down so far that most of are holding on in hopes
of it coming back, but to breakeven most of us need $3 to $4/share. I
think they have alot of us figured out as being afraid to take a lose
and their making their money at levels below where we're holding.
About two weeks ago I increased my position at these low levels and
now I'm think that the next time the stock runs up I'm going to take
some off the table. I'm going to watch carefully for a performance
like last week where the stock moves a little on volume, but then
drops in a few days. I am not going to accumulate anymore, because
everytime I do the stock goes down. I my opinion let them find new
suckers or let the price start moving up. If we're waiting on
earning to increase the stock price I think we have a long time,
all the analysts predictions support that. To me it translates into
dead money for a long period of time that could be put to better use.
I know I said alot. Some of you may find some truth in this and others
my totally disagree with me, but I just wanted to voice my frustration.
I'm heavilly invested in this stock and I know this kind of thinking is
not health, but on the otherhand I'm tired of being taken for a ride
by the MM.
People at ACTV are aware of this website and do read these articles.
I don't know about the MM, but if they want to know what the
stockholder's are thinking then their here too. I was think about
communicating off line for awhile. Either by phone or a site
unknown to the market makers. I tried to contact a few of you by
clicking on your names to find your e-mail address's, but was unable
to reach anyone. There maybe some benefit to getting together and
communicating where the insider's don't know what we're thinking. We
sure as hell don't know everything they're upto.
I think this post will raise alot of emotions. Like I said I'm just
frustrated and tired. Maybe tommorrow I'll be more optimistic, but
right now I'm going to try to go back to sleep. |
