Natural gas -- who is nuts?
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highnoon.ws
In High Noon for Natural Gas readers can expect to find a critical analysis of government policy on energy, as well as a meticulously researched warning about our next potentially catastrophic energy crisis.
Did you know that:
Natural Gas (NG) is the second most important energy source after oil;
In the U.S. alone, NG is used to supply 20% of all electricity and 60% of all home heating;
NG is absolutely critical to the manufacture of agricultural fertilizers;
In the U.S. the NG supply is at critically low levels, and early in 2003 we came within days of blackouts and heating shutdowns;
Matt Simmons, the world’s foremost private energy banker, is now warning that economic growth in the U.S. is under threat due to the looming NG crisis?
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fuelingthefuture.org
The Supply Challenge
The natural gas resource base in North America is vast and diverse. This statement, while simple, is actually poorly understood and often misinterpreted when quantified. Estimates of the natural gas resource
base made at one time are often a better measure of how the resource base has changed over time than an absolute value. Clearly, the North American resource base is capable of sustaining consumption well into the 21st century and beyond.
Virtually all of the natural gas consumed in the United States in produced in North America. Most (87 percent) is produced in the United States. Canada provides most of the remainder (about 97 percent of U.S. imports, or about 3Tcf in 1998). Mexico's large natural gas resource base and its high production capability make it a potential gas supply source. This diversity, both in terms of the supply source and geographic distribution, adds strength to the flexible, economic and reliable nature of natural gas in today's energy mix.
Note: All Tcf have been converted to quads to ease comparison
Although the gas resource base is often characterized as "finite," estimates of its size continue to grow. Because experts' ability to evaluate and measure the gas resource base is imprecise, characterization of this resource base as "finite" can be misleading. As the tools and technologies used in the evaluation process improve, resource base estimates of virtually all estimators have increased over time. For example, at year-end 1998, the Potential Gas Committee (PGC) estimated the United States' future supply of natural gas at 1,241 quads, which is more than 60 years of supply at current domestic production rates. However, PGC has made detailed resource evaluations every two years for more than 30 years based on the input of hundreds of petroleum geologists and engineers. Curiously, its 1998 estimate exceeds its 1990 estimate (1,207 quads) by 34 quads even though more than 149 quads was produced from the total resource base over that timeframe. In other words, the future supply estimate for 1998 was more than 15 percent larger than the estimate made in 1990 even though significant production had occurred.
PGC is not alone in expanding its estimate of the gas resource base. The National Petroleum Council released a major report in December 1999 with heavy involvement by natural gas producers, pipelines, distribution companies and the federal government. The report notes that in comparison with its 1992 study, "Taking into account the 124 Tcf [128 quads] that has been produced in the lower 48 states since then, the estimate of the resource base has increased 23 percent since the last study. The increase is largely due to technology breakthroughs that have opened new frontiers such as the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico and have provided improved information and better tools for evaluating — and more fully recovering — resources." |
