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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (29496)5/6/2005 11:28:57 AM
From: critical_mass  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
looking at the numbers from 2003 and 2004, it seems strange that the market does not discount a birth - death adjustment somewhere in the range of previous years.

for example, it does not seem to be stretch to forecast

may, 2005 adjustment of + 190K +/-
june, 2005 adjustment of + 170K +/-
july, 2005 adjustment of - 85K +/-

bls.gov

two years of data is not a very reliable trend, but it seems safe to bet that july and january will have negative adjustments, and if the past is any indication, as it seems to have been, the magnitude of the adjustments will be within 15% of the previous year.
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