Blankmind,
The CSBK results look ok, not great, from an uninformed investor point of view, and that may be the main type of investor looking at these stocks right now. For example, a friend pointed out that Keeley Small Cap Value Fund lowered its small bank exposure recently in December from 10% to 3%, so it doesn't seem like institutions are loading up at this point.
I'd say that PE's of 50 or even maybe 25(?) if you adjust for shares actually out in the mkt don't look attractive to the typical value investor. One problem from a short-term price perspective is that if you are right and everyone else is wrong, then you are wrong.
Also, the impact of higher rates tends to lag, so I don't think you will have started seeing much of the pain yet (should there be any). I don't know enough to determine how important this factor is, but it could cause prices to deviate significantly from how they have behaved in the past few years.
In addition, below book value is great, but what about the relative value question. I see a lot of new thrift ipos beat up badly (i.e., trading below ipo prices) in addition to some other ones on the thread that look cheap --- are your choices the cheapest ones? They may do well, but I'd rather buy the cheapest ones unless there is a compelling reason to do otherwise.
I'm trying to be constructively critical here. I do appreciate your posts on these opportunites and am considering buying some.
Thanks!
MC |
