Ray,
I think both increased demand and rate of depletion were underestimated in that 2004 report...."historically" speaking.
China will be just starting to fill their own SPR soon. I wonder if the 2005 report acknowledges that.
And if Indonesia is mentioned:
JAKARTA, 5 May 2005 — Indonesia’s membership of OPEC is not in doubt despite a plunge in oil production levels which could lead it to become a net importer, the country’s energy minister said yesterday.
Purnomo Yusgiantoro said even if Indonesia’s output levels dipped further, its status as part of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries group was assured. “I have asked OPEC about the matter and they said that when you want to join the organization you have to be a net exporter. But when you are already there and have become a member, you will continue to be a member,” he said. Yusgiantoro, who stepped down as OPEC president earlier this year, said that despite huge imports of refined oil to supplement the meager supplies from Indonesia’s own creaking energy industry, the country was still a net exporter. “In OPEC, comparison should be made on a crude-to-crude basis. Crude exports should be compared to crude imports as well,” he added, according to the state Antara news agency.
On a crude-to-crude comparison, Indonesia is still categorized as a net exporter, even though the margin is relatively small, the minister said. “But it is not impossible that we could turn to be a net importer,” he added.
arabnews.com |
