Unfortunately, the Caspian is turning out to NOT have more oil than Saudi Arabia.
In the late 1990s, BP and some others drilled a well pretty far out in the Caspian Sea. This well found a good supply of oil. I t also found the structual sequence of layers was VERY similar to that found at some wells on shore, MANY miles away.
Most of this was thought to continue to Kazakstan.
This led to the possiblity that there was a BLANKET FORMATION holding oil all over a large area.
So instead of the oil deposits being like chocolate chips in a cookie, ther might be a whole layer of chocolate, like in a cake.
There was the feeling at that time that 1) The Saudis were becominng less stable and 2) we would see Saudi production peak & decline in the near future, maybe around 2008. The North Sea was already declining. So the Big Caspian find looked like a great deal, with good timing.
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So various strategic calclations were made, inlcuding what it would take to get a friendly government in Afgahnistan so a pipeline could run from the Caspian through Afgahinstan and Pakistan to the ocean. In 1999 the 82nd Airbourne spent thier summer vacation exercising with our new friend, Kazakstan.
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Additonal drilling occurs, with mostly mixed or negative results. The formation isn't a blanket, but changes and dips and folds like many other places.
So the estimates of oil go back pretty much to the chocolate chip model. The dreams of billions and billions of barrels goes away...
So the strategists look for where else there are accesible cheap reserves which are under expolited. Iraq fits the bill.
Various actions, provocations, funding of certain groups and the build up to attacking Iraq starts gearing up.
9/11 happens. The US is in a position to hit Afghanistan quickly and hard, and does so, startling much of the Islamic world - remember all that "Afghanistan, graveyard of colonial powers " punditry ?
The US is on a roll...
Unfortunately believeing the "Curveball" source on WMDs,also a Mr. Ahamed Chalabi, and under certain neocon leadership, the Iraq action takes off without much in reality based planning....
So the US goes desparately scrambling to get Iraq on track.
The US unleashes the "Democracy" weapon.
The Ukarine then 'correctly' elects a pro-Western president, who IMMEDIATELY appoints the MOST pro-Moscow person to be #2 and responsible for energy...
Oddly, few in the Western press will mention this, but it looks like a deal was made.
This "election" causes an unexpected blow up in Kryzgstan, surprising the US, the Russians, the EU, and even the starry-eyed idealists.
(Watch for new, "responsible" officals to take over the democratic movement in Kryzgstan in a year or two. )
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At this point, more development of Iraqi oil, and exploration to Western Iraq,is likely to be a few years into the future.
Which makes Canadian oil Sands look good.
Which may be why the Bush administration now has an energy plan with the word conservation in it.
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What else looks good ? Libya is back. The west coast of Africa. Onshore Africa, but with more risk.
Smaller areas, like Ecuador. Old areas that can be reworked, like Romania. Offshore British Columbia. Sakahalin Island (Eastern Russia)
Ultra Deep Gulf of Mexico - Big bucks, high risk.
After looking at that list, most people will want to look at oil sands again. ;-) |
