Avant (AVNT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Avant (AVNT)

AVNT 28.25

-3.6%

Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: tonto who wrote (373)	9/6/1997 12:34:00 PM
From: Cosmo Daisey	of 3441

Tonto, I can appreciate the hard work and dilligence that has gone into the postings on this board, however, the market is ignoring the lawsuit. This is a typical reaction to charges of theft in the software business and most of the cases are settled without much fanfare. This suit will depend on Cadence and their decision to either go for the money or go for the gusto. From a technical view this stock is headed for $40 in the short term. There is too much stock in the float for a squeeze to be effective and the number of insider sales is insignificant in relation to the total outstanding and the insider holdings. If the short position wasn't so large the price would be close to $80 right now. Insiders and reporting shareholders hold ten million shares so a few hundred thousand shares is nothing by comparison. This is normal bonus stock selling and occurs in all companies. The confirmation of trouble will be if millions of shares start to be sold by the big institutional holder. The ultimate collapse of companies involved in questionable practices and illegal activities usually takes about a year from the time the news is reported. Usually the stock tanks following the news and recovers, many times hitting new highs as the stockholders discount the news and see the momentium carring the price forward. When the news finally sinks in a year later jubilation turns to panic and the shorts are rewarded. Its a tough decision to stay short in the run up. Crazy Eddies was an electronics chain that had huge insider ownership that was selling millions of shares, reporting increased inventory in the warehouse, (another clue that they aren't selling it) Manual inventory and accounting done each night by Ed's cousins even though they sold computers. (Ed said the retail business didn't fit the computer age). Why am I telling you this? Because through all the problems and news stories about Eddie being a crook and stealing the stockholders blind the stock price continued to reach for the sky and enjoyed increased coverage from wall street analyst. Eddie is now in jail, too bad, I was hoping he would get back in the business to give us another short. AVNT is in stage two, read what Stan Weinstein says about shorting a stage two stock. Coz

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