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Strategies & Market Trends : Short Selling, Dark Side, Bubble Busting Laboratory

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To: orkrious who wrote (113)	5/11/2005 8:00:20 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 361

Looks like EZ Al's financial equilibrium "invisible hand" Message 21303748 Boyz and Pig Men (term unabashedly plagerized from Mark Pierce) are at work pre-open after yesterday's swoon. Some notes: yesterday's volume swelled to over 1.9 billion on the NYSE, continuing to confirm my A-B-C pattern/model stockta.com of punk volume on the rallies, and now increasing volume on the declines. All the major indexes now looked capped at various moving averages (34-50-200). stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pb200!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pb200!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pb200!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G There are broad bands of overhead resistance in play. This is the kind of setup that will present "Battle of Kursk" problems for the bulls (just like the Nazis). They can't just depend on using short squeezes in fewer and fewer stocks to penetrate this. A lot of liquidity is coming off, especially starting Thursday the 12th with 8.0 b in Fed repos and 18 b in TIOS. The Treasury will be back with quarterly refunding needs as next week starts. The COTS more and more suggest that the big spec short squeeze cftc.gov in the 5-10-30 bonds is nearly over. Dependence on foreign central bank custodial purchases will become tantamount. I expect a surge in longer rates as the Treasury goes to that market for financing, and as it becomes more evident that the Fed is going to pause or hesitate in it's rate increases. The 2/10 and Fed fund/10 spread will now widen, as will risk spreads. If the Bulls manage to do an Orwellian Ministry of Truth rectification orwelltoday.com of the trade deficit to prompt another rally, the key to watch today are the volume and AD lines. They must turn up if this is not a narrow manipulation or smoke and mirrors. If not this will be an opportunity to gear up more shorts and dark side plays. The VIX coming off will favor put buyers in the indexes like IWM, and SPY. Many ETF puts like FXI and XLF are cheap.

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