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Strategies & Market Trends : IPO and Other Stock Plays

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From: yossarian67	5/11/2005 8:08:32 PM
	of 13331

moh lost 2 contracts today----and they're actually 2 big ones. this is a big loss for moh, not just that it'll be about 8% of expected '06 revenue, but also that it's a dangerous trend---san bern/riverside counties both have high latino populations the market that moh focuses. looks like either a) they've fallen out of favor with the the CA DofH or b)they were lowballed bid by a competitor because they don't feel they can profitably do biz in CA any longer at the bid renewal prices ----either way it spells potential trouble---while I liked DWA on the 10%+ sell-off today, with moh I'd step aside and watch here----their CA biz future was always the potential trouble spot and they've addressed the tighter margin environment in CA from the beginning in their initial prospectus and in focus in growing enrollment in other states while only maintaining enrollment numbers in CA----nonetheless CA still represents in '05 their largest topline revenue source--and they just lost 2 big contracts from that source. I think you have to step aside here and wait a few quarters with moh here to see how things progress. DWA up to near 33 ah's? Should have gotten more!

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