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Strategies & Market Trends : Playing the QQQQ with Terry and friends.

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To: sandintoes who wrote (64)5/13/2005 12:04:05 AM
From: Walkingshadow  Read Replies (3) of 4814
 
Well, the question to ask, it seems to me, is how to identify the NEXT KKD ?

I think the answer begins with a process whereby you identify a list of possible candidates. In other words, you need a plan going forward. To me, these potential short candidates all have certain things in common:

1. professional gap down (i.e., huge volume)

2. failure at gap resistance

3. failure at the 200 sma

4. confirmation of that failure by a lower low, a lower peak, and a bear cross

5. major fundamental problems (e.g., restatement of earnings, management meltdown/demonstrated incompetence, etc, big-time legal and/or PR problems)... anything that is typically not fixed overnight.

These 5 criteria identify with very high accuracy a stock that is going nowhere for at least a year, more often several years.

From there, reliable support/resistance levels should be identified. These will usually take a bit of time to develop after a big gap down. A period of "equilibration" is necessary. But sometimes there are shorting opportunities anyway during this early period, e.g. a stock that rallies half-heartedly on low volume into the gap, and then begins to be turned back after reaching overbought status.

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