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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: macavity who wrote (7132)5/13/2005 11:42:02 AM
From: macavity  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
Who really knows?

I use a lot of indicators to arrive at a lot of conclusions.
I can therefore usually find the conditions to share a bullish or a bearish slant.
As I say, it depends on the timeframe - find the timeframe for your psychology then pick the indicators, then follow some simple rules.

There are a lot of signals to being mega-bearish - but these are on some really quite long timeframes - what I refer to as the long-term-buy-&-hold (LTBH).
The SPX is toying with its 55wk ema.
The 55wk, 200d, 1y MAs (call it what you like) usually define cyclical bulls and bears ,for me I call this the long-term LT.
This is currently flat; the bull rally from 2002/3 is now being tested.
If the SPX moves below this and the MA turns down then we may be witnessing a cyclical top.
This cyclical top (4 year cycle) would then be below the last (2000).
This is serious, very serious.
Recessions (in secular bulls) usually occur from higher highs, for one to occur from a lower high would indicate at worst a secular bear.
You do not buy and hold in a secular bear! Especially if you are retiring.
The SPX has turned its quarterly chart down.
The next rally to oversold in weekly stochs will be important.
If the 13 week stoch (currently rising) turns down before we reach new highs there is a strong likelihood that we will break the 55 wk and head down, staying down for some time.

The dollar has just turned its quarterly chart up.

Dollar possibly rising, LT yields possibly falling, stocks possibly falling.

Is enough to make a deflationista giddy!

If we do head down, I am sure that the reasons will become obvious after the fact.
With the turn down in Quarterly charts - if the SPX does not clear the post 2003 high before the end of Q32005, then we are in for an "interesting episode".

-macavity
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