Drygulch, "My intent was to show that the long term trend in RE pricing unadjusted for inflation was approx between 6% and 9%,"
Sure, o.k., and all I meant was you could as well have said the return has been 3 and 4.5 percent over 175 years, as compared to 6 or 9 percent over 100 years, or whatever. I recall watching periods in certain Bay Area communities where appreciation rates were well documented as being stable around 4 percent monthly for periods extending over several months. Interesting numbers conversationally, I guess.
"Regarding China, $48.5 million per day may sound like a lot of money..."
Again, you are quite correct. However, what I said was, "...China alone..." At least it's evidence that there is far more mortgage money available than ever before and from sources not previously in our markets. U.S. mortgage packages are a world commodity now, carrying only the appearance of the underwriting standards of the past. Curious that some of these same foreign sources of mortgage money are also becoming less frequent buyers of treasury issues.
Here's another astounding number, for what it's worth. In the Phoenix/Maricopa County market, 265 new homes finish construction each calendar day. Most are sold while still on the drawing boards. Again, at least 1/3d go to investors, many of whom are bailing out of the Las Vegas market. |
