Hi AP,
I see a short-term trend change for several reasons:
$TICKs are rising from neutral to low levels; that tells me there is more upside left today.
But $TRINs are rising from very low levels, volatilities have dropped to support and look ready to reverse very soon, and CBOE put/call is getting to bullish extremes (currently 0.73). These all spell an end to the short-term uptrend very soon.
Taken together then, I think the market internals indicate upside into the afternoon, with a pullback beginning after 2pm or possibly as late as the open tomorrow.
Volume patterns strongly indicate an imminent pullback also.
And $37.00 is chart resistance. QQQQ has driven right through several key resistance levels, including the critical 200 sma. Currently, it has traded up to $36.98 so far today, but has now pulled back some from those highs, and is currently printing $36.94. Volume is fairly strong at 39 million so far, less than 90 minutes into the session. I suspect $36.98 will be the high of the day today.
Intraday and daily momentum indicators show relatively overbought conditions, which is consistent with (but not of itself indicative of) a pullback soon.
So there's quite a bit of evidence for a pullback, and little evidence that I can see for continued unabated upside at this time.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[db][pd20,2!b50][vc60][iLg!Lyb20,2.0]&pref=G
BUT: I don't expect a pullback to last long. Support at the 200 sma might hold (currently $36.60), but I think it is more likely we'll see a pullback to either the 50 sma (currently $36.08) or chart support at $35.95. Then, reversal and a strong challenge at $37.00 overhead that will be successful (assuming volume patterns develop favorably, as I expect).
T |
