Date: Fri May 20 2005 14:17
trotsky (Sherlock) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
obviously, the stocks in the sector don't all make their lows at the same time...but as for the sector as a whole, it seems highly likely that at least a short to medium term low is at hand.
sentiment is e.g. at a rare oversold extreme, and the ratio of the sector indices to the PoG is also in an area that has provided strong support on basically all past occasions. in addition, money flows have been quite good during the decline.
Date: Fri May 20 2005 13:29
trotsky (Greenspan admits that housing is in a bubble) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for the first time...this is quite an about-face for the man who previously insisted that bubbles could only be identified 'in hindsight'.
Date: Fri May 20 2005 12:20
trotsky (mozel, 12:00) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
good point...i agree, it does look like there are multiple claims out on tangible assets. as you say, we see that debt is growing at a multiple of 5 vs. reported 'real' GDP growth ( which is overstated via hedonic indexing ) , so something is clearly seriously out of whack.
imo it's a given that this 'legal tender' fiat money scam is destined for the scrap heap of history similar to its predecessors, the only question is when. people sometimes marvel at the fact that it has held up for so long already, but that is actually not surprising if one considers the Soviet Union managed to exist for 70 years before it got shipwrecked by the impossibility of calculation in a communist economy.
Date: Fri May 20 2005 12:07
trotsky (tyrant) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i don't think buying shares 'non-open market at $0 per share' can be called meaningful insider buying. at $0, i'd also buy as many shares as i could get, regardless of the company's health.
as an aside, insider trading has generally been a very poor indicator in the metal shares over the years, unless insiders are actually buying in the open market, which is extremely rare ( options compensation related buying and selling otoh is basically meaningless ) .
Date: Fri May 20 2005 11:46
trotsky (silverfox, 10:19) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
since speculators are now net long the US dollar against all the major currencies ( see CoT reports ) , the characterization that the 'shorts are getting squeezed' is off the mark. rather, we see more speculative short selling of non-dollar currency contracts ( and by implication, speculative buying of the dollar ) .
Date: Fri May 20 2005 11:42
trotsky (strat, 10:11) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
this is a rather naive view. when the state spends money on military gadgets, it contributes to the 'eating of the seed corn' that bedevils the economy. essentially, this spending is a waste of scarce resources ( since the only thing military gadgets are useful for is DESTROYING things ) . it is non-productive spending that diverts resources from where they could be used to much better effect.
in short, while government's spending sprees are reflected in reported "GDP growth" they really weaken the economy structurally and have very negative long term effects.
you are of course right to call it a 'gravy train' - it is one for those well enough connected to make hay from this misallocation of capital. nevertheless, for the economy at large, this is bad news indeed.
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