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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (25133)5/21/2005 12:33:38 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) of 108697
 
Slider:

I basically agree with you on gold although I doubt we have seen the final bottom.

Whether the HUI has already troughed as you think or troughs around 140-150 as I think, the upward move off the bottom will be huge and last for years.

As far as interest rates are concerned the capitulation of former T bond bears like Bill Gross and Jim Grant reminds me of the capitulation of prominent stock market bears in late 1999 early 2000 as the tech bubble neared a top.

To me low T bond yields are THE CRUCIAL FACTOR holding up all the extant bubbles. As long as T bond yields plunge at the slightest hint of trouble in the economy and stock market no major bear move is likely IMHO. And if these yields stay low, bubbles will expand still further making the ultimate of reckoning even worse.

With even Greenspan now admitting we have a housing bubble those betting on an early Fed reversal may be premature IMHO.
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