Experts warn Senate of Iranian nuclear threat
State Department official sees no signs Tehran is easing off
- Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times
Friday, May 20, 2005
Washington -- A senior State Department official and international experts gave Congress a pessimistic assessment Thursday of developments in Iran, saying they saw no signs that current disarmament efforts would deter the country's rulers from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
One expert told senators that the "most probable" outcome of the current stalemate with Iran would be that Tehran would acquire nuclear weapons. "We ought to get used to the idea of thinking about what it would be like to live with an Iranian nuclear bomb," said Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.
Iran has recently threatened to begin enriching uranium -- a key step in producing a nuclear weapon -- after agreeing to freeze such work two years ago. Tehran insists that its nuclear program is needed for civilian energy uses, but its threat has increased U.S.-Iranian tensions.
Undersecretary of State R. Nicholas Burns told the committee that the United States saw "no sign Iran has made the necessary strategic decision to abandon its nuclear ambitions." Burns called on Iran to "maintain suspension of all nuclear-related activities and negotiate in good faith the eventual cessation and dismantling of all sensitive nuclear fuel cycle activities."
Otherwise, he said, European nations -- which are trying to persuade Iran to abandon any ambitions to produce nuclear weapons -- would insist that Iran's nuclear work be referred to the U.N. Security Council.
Burns also spurned the Europeans' suggestion that the United States should offer more help with their negotiations. "There is no reason to believe that extra incentives offered by the United States at this point would make a difference," Burns said.
Geoffrey Kemp, a former National Security Council official now at the Nixon Center in Washington, warned that "there is no way" U.S. or European efforts would prevent a "proud country of 70 million people with abundant resources" from acquiring an atomic bomb if they wanted one.
Without "fundamental change in the Iranian leadership, combined with a willingness on the part of the Bush administration to take big risks, the United States is on course for a serious crisis with Iran at some point in the coming months," Kemp said.
If Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, the United States would be forced to consider persuading Egypt, Saudi Arabia and possibly other nations in the region not to develop nuclear weapons, Milhollin said.
At the urging of European leaders this year, President Bush agreed to offer some incentives to Tehran, including the sale of civilian aircraft parts and dropping the long-standing U.S. objection to allowing Iran to apply for membership in the World Trade Organization.
Senior U.S. officials have since been cool to the idea -- floated by Europeans and some outside Iran experts -- to agree on a list of economic benefits that could be offered to Tehran if it promises not to enrich uranium. Under that scenario, sanctions could be imposed if Iran refuses to accept the deal.
The Europeans and Iranians are scheduled to meet next week.
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