Hi OJ--the small caps do seem to be roaring back.
Now assuming that the bonds recover and stabilize, that could give us the final ingredient for a top in this market.
When I used to frequent the BigK thread, I kept insisting that major tops are invariably preceded by speculative excesses where the third and fourth tier stocks begin to move in a big way. May be we are seeing the start of this. If I am right, it may have some way to go -- and it could get awfully frothy before it is over--with everyone jumping on the band-wagon.
I do follow cycles and have some faith in that facet of technical analysis--and there is a line of thinking that suggests that this highly speculative phase may not occur until we see the next major cycle bottom--which will occur in mid 1998--and then move up from there for the rally of all rallies--or to paraphrase Saddam Hussein, the mother of all rallies. The other school of thought suggests that it is already under way---and that we'll see a top by early next year. In the meantime we need to be flexible, as always, and let the market tell us where and in which direction to put our money.
On BAY, your call for 60 is suddenly not looking totally off the wall:)
On a non-trading matter--I felt the irony of aggressively trading the markets on Friday--even as Mother Teresa's death was announced. It did seem to me that what I was doing was the antithesis of what her life was about.
Heard a fascinating anecdote today about her. She was in Calcutta tending to a poor man who was full of sores and other afflictions and was apparently physically so disfigured that it took considerable fortitude to be near him. Watching her was a Cardinal from elsewhere in the world. As she tended to this person, this Cardinal said to her that he could not understand how she could do what she was doing, given the condition of this man, and said that he would not be able do so even if he was given $100,000. Whereupon she replied that she would not be able to do it for $100,000 either, but she could do it out of love.
Have a good weekend, my friend |
