Notes on reentering the energy long trade:
Bob Hoye (who has made some great commodity calls, including the recent break) has a scenario based on bands and moving averages that I think is a good model, written up April 15th.:
"Using this information we can estimate a time window for a low from May 27th through July 1st with the highest probability being the week of June 24th. The oil stocks can be anticipated to bottom a week or two earlier than crude oil.
That's also consistent with an oil seasonal low occurring in June:
idorfman.com
As of the last COTs, the specs were still long 10,811 CL and 6,874 NG. That's not a big deal one way or the other, but for my money I'd be more bullish if they actually went short.
On the stocks I'm looking for the 200 MA, as entry points. The names I like still have rising MA, and as prices move lower, and the MA rises, we should hit the buy point over the next several weeks. I do like the fact the money flows quickly turn up or get green at the first blush of a bounce, good sign. I'll SWAG that after this latest bounce, they now retest the lows near the 200 MA.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G |
