re:....... the "necessity" of Volume.
I think we all agree on wanting to see strong volume accompanying & endorsing the sustainability of any rally in goldstocks.
BUT.... I will certainly settle here for a cessation of selling.
There is NOTHING wrong with this action on low/moderate volume here...nothing at all....and selling exhaustion is a good first step.
1st Rule in Triage.... STOP THE BLEEDING.
My favorite trading environment is when we've got lot's of bleeding to the degree that we reach extreme divergence levels in Fundamental Valuation Metric's like the HUI:Gold Price Ratio's that we've just seen.
Or, a market divergence of opinion on key underlying fundamental catalysts for Gold and/or the US Dollar ...such as the recent US Dollar Rally - which is more of a Euro Bear based on a weak Euro Economy and France & Norway potentially voting "NO" on adopting the Euro Constitution, than a Dollar Bull Market imho.
Or, even merely erroneous/specious hedonic-spin doctor, Economic Stats - ie: no inflation, strong retail sales, hedonic voodoo job number uptic's; where Gold and/or Goldstocks sell off on what I think is a misinterpretation, as well as a misrepresentation of reality, or the market reacting irrationally to unsustainable news.
Give me the above, accompanied by Terrible Sentiment and washout selling...and when my Charts beging to show a the formation of a bottom.... BAMMM! - you gotta anticipate and buy into the abyss - because of the nature of the HUI stocks far more often than not, "V" rallies up off of the ultimate bottoms.
I also usually break all the TA rules, just as I do FA rules... as far as "anticipating" a turn...and as we've all spoken to here... I place a strong emphasis on SENTIMENT and use some proprietary SENTIMENT indicators and trade heavilly off of them, when endorsed by mispriced fundamentals.
I do NOT trade solely upon TA, or even primarially upon TA; but I DO use TA strongly in conjunction with some proprietary sentiment & fundamental metric's.
I can't (won't - vbg) upload my personal charts...so just a quick 2 component short term screen here using stockcharts.com below:
On a short-term trading basis when trying to call a trading bottom, I like to use 7 dma & 21 dma's in conjunction with a few other indicators vs. the traditional 50 & 200 dma.
I'd really like to see 3 days of a 7 dma close over the 21 dma - 178.61 here for the HUI...as the 7 dma hasn't been able to close & hold above the 21 mda since this meltdown began.
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclynay[db][pb7,50!b21,200!f][iut!Ub14!Ll14]&pref=G
Here are 3 of my main "trading" stocks here - vis a vie "leading" the HUI.
The quality Juniors should lead & outperform on this leg imho and SOME are...(obviously the key is still stock selection).
While the HUI chart is forming nicely here, I want the HUI Chart above to turn & look like my Fav' - Hat Trick Flippers here (vbg):
...like this Quality Jr - OZN:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclynay[db][pb7,50!b21,200!f][iut!Ub14!Ll14]&pref=G
...or this super-geared USD rally play - HMY (So Africans will vastly outperform as long as we have this irrational US Dollar bounce):
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclynay[db][pb7,50!b21,200!f][iut!Ub14!Ll14]&pref=G
...or this little High Beta Tradin' Fav' - GSS:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclynay[db][pb7,50!b21,200!f][iut!Ub14!Ll14]&pref=G
PS: Watch the GLD etf...today's volume at the open - spoke volumes.
The US throwing down the 6 month China Re-Peg Gauntlet - spoke volumes.
The France/Norway "No" Vote Threat/Eurozone economic slowdown led Bear Market in the Euro - resulting in a US Dollar Bull... is unsustainable and Goldstocks selling off on THAT news...to levels of extreme HUI:Bullion valuation divergence....virtualy requires us to ANTICIPATE bottoms here....not just given the far more often than not - "V" move off of the bottom nature of the HUI, but also endorsed by nearly all of the underlying longterm catalysts for Gold - a continuing US Dollar Bear Market, ramping US Deficits, ongoing significant Geopolitical Risk, Derivative Blow Up Risk and a probable, prolonged period of low Market Returns.
PS:
...sign that THE END is near ?
- when/if Google ever trades higher than Gold.
Mad-Money's Mo-Mo Cramer just ramped his price target on the Goog' to $350.
...it can't be much longer before the Yellow Dog is unleashed.
Can't be...
$1 Million Dollar, Garage Sized Bungalow's in California and a share of Google on its way to outprice an Ounce of Gold - only in America and only in an environment of truly - "MAD" Money.
...don't get MAD - get GLAD
...and get GOLD - NOW !.... while it's on sale ~ |
