<<It seems that ASND is becoming very difficult for the analysts to make projections.
The margin of error is huge. I believe this accounts for the market's recent poor
treatment of ASND. The market does not like uncertainty.>>
Hi, Glenn. Just back from a 10 day vacation to Alaska. Went to Fairbanks, Denali,
Anchorage,and a 3 day cruise down the inner passage of SE Alaska. Gorgeous
trip - a most beautiful state.
I knew I would only have internet access once or twice in the evenings,
so I tried a little blind trading. I put in a GTC @ $40.5 the day I left
and it hit right away. Using touch-tone trader, I then placed a GTC
to sell at $42.875 and that hit too. Then I placed another buy at $40.50
and that also hit on Friday! Who says blind trading can't be done when
you know a bit (from hard experience) about how this stock moves.
I just got through reading/skimming over 700 ASND posts and wow what
negativism. What a surprise - ASND is still here!
To Casey, who is still spreading that $.02 vs $.09 ASND earnings nonsense
(and any others who believe him):
For the third time - earnings are not linear with revenue.
The $.09 figure comes from 1/4 of the $.36 estimate for the qtr.
If revs come in at 25%, 25%, 50% for this qtr, earnings can and
will accellerate - let me explain with a simple analogy.
Say company "A" has 100 shares of stock outstanding and is
"expected" to earn $0.40 for it's third quarter. Fixed costs are $60,
and variable costs are 50% of sales. Therefore revenues have to be
$200 to earn $.40. ($200 revs - $100 var costs - $60 fixed costs) / 100 shares.
Now assume revs come in at 25%,25%,50% (sound familiar?) or $50, $50,
$100. Assume fixed costs are spread equally (e.g. $20) each month.
July earnings: ($50 revs - $25 Var - $20 fixed) = $.05 per share.
August earnings: ($50 revs - $25 Var - $20 fixed) = $.05 per share.
September earnings: ($100 revs - $50 Var - $20 fixed) = $.30 per share.
September earnings are 6 times July earnings on only doubled revenues!
This is why the $.02 is worthless for a projection. We don't know
the details used in the calculations. If the revs come in at 20%, 30%,
50% (which may be closer for ASND) you get July break-even, Aug $.10,
Sept $.30, which is still $.40 for the qtr.
For my money, I'll use the current negativism to beef up my current
holdings. I'm VERY confident in the long term prospects for ASND.
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