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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (25235)	5/24/2005 5:23:05 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 108633

********** HUI 350 is coming ************** re: ["I like the fact that the HUI is strongly outperforming bullion again today. And is strong even though the buck has gained back most of its early losses."] ...there are many ways that bottoms are formed and rally's are created. We reached an extreme divergence between Bullion & the HUI. We had a complete washout of Sentiment and a massive selloff. - actually; that is EXACTLY what we needed. It was of primary importance that the HUI held that 163.82 bottom from last May and selling now appears to have exhausted itself. Given that "V" moves up off of the bottoms are the rule and not the exception for the HUI...when/if Volume does arrive; those who find themselves on the sidelines may find themselves left behind in the HUI's "V"-Rally Dust (vbg). Personally, I very much like what I am seeing here. I'll be monitoring the Euro:US Dollar tape into & out of the France & Norway upcoming Euro Constitution Vote. That is perhaps the only pre-emptive profit taking event that I see dead ahead/short-term... with Traders perhaps taking profits thursday/friday in anticipation of the vote...and depending on the results of the Vote and the reaction of the Euro:Dollar; we could get a selloff if the Euro falls & Dollar Rallies on France/Norway "No" votes. - but, much of this may already be priced in here, but it's a potential factor. Post clearing this issue next week; the stage is set for the next upward HUI leg. Technically; we've had 3 Major Legs to this HUI Bull Cycle so far. Leg #1 commenced when the HUI moved from its HUI 35 bottom in Q4 '00 up to HUI 80 resistance in Q2 '01. = total move of 44 points. It then pulled back and formed another multi-support bottom at HUI 60 in Q3 to Q4 '02 and then rallied in Leg #2 during Q1 to Q2 of 2003, running to an interim top of HUI 154. = total move of 94 points. The HUI then pulled back and formed another multi-support bottom in Q4 '03 to Q1 '04 with 3 higher lows from 92, to 102 and then lifted off from the 112 level for a run to HUI 258 forming Leg #3 = total move of 146 points. We now appear to have now based for Leg #4 here, with another bottom formation drawing from the HUI 163.82 low in May '04, to our closing low of HUI 166.46 here this May. Each of the 3 prior HUI legs have increased the move of the prior leg by approx 50 points. The 1st HUI Bull Cycle Leg was approx 40 points, the 2nd leg was approx 90 points and the 3rd Leg was approx 140 points up off of the bottom. It the pattern holds; this leg should run approx 190 points off of the HUI 166 bottom here, for an ultimate upside target on this leg of HUI 350 ! This Leg ultimately runs to HUI "350"...that's my call if this bottom holds. Longterm trendline for both Gold & the HUI are still very Bullish...and the underlying fundamentals for a sustained Gold Bull have not changed. ONWARD & UPWARD ~ HUI 350...that's the call. $`

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