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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (30762)5/25/2005 2:49:46 PM
From: CalculatedRisk  Read Replies (3) of 116555
 
Dr. Altig (Cleveland FED) at Macroblog presents an analysis every Monday of the likely Fed Funds rate. Its about 90% for 25bps at the next meeting.

But if you look out to October the odds are all over the place (most likely listed first):

1) 35% probability of 25bps more after July hike (to 3.5% in Oct)
2) 30% probability of 50bps more after July hike (to 3.75%)
3) 25% probability of no hikes after July (3.25%)
4) 10% probability of 75bps more after July (to 4%)

macroblog.typepad.com
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