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Strategies & Market Trends : Playing the QQQQ with Terry and friends.

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To: stock2005 who wrote (427)5/26/2005 5:04:04 AM
From: Walkingshadow  Read Replies (2) of 4814
 
Hi stock2005,

You are correct, TELK is very oversold:

139.142.147.218

But right now, there are absolutely no buy signals in the technical/momentum indicators.

Remember, just because something is oversold, even extremely oversold, that is no reason of itself to buy, and anticipating buy signals or sell signals is a very hazardous game at best. Extreme oversold can always become even MORE extremely oversold, and stay that way for months.

This typically is the case when there is a fundamental trend change to the downside, or when the stock is just in a strong downtrend. The latter is the case with TELK:

stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60]&pref=G

This chart shows a classic failure and trend shift, with all the right things in textbook perfect sequence: a double top in April 2004, gap down, failure at multiple chart support levels, failure at the all-important 200 sma, bull trap juke step after initial failure at the 200, re-failure at the 200, confirmation of that failure with a lower low and a lower peak, then.... last but not least, the kiss of death: a bear cross (50 sma/200 sma crossover).

I wouldn't touch a long position in TELK, because taking long positions in a strongly downtrending stock is not a wise idea at all----the volatilities are against you; there is much more volatility to the downside than to the upside, which skews the risk/reward ratio in a very unfavorable way.

Instead, I would concentrate on short positions.

Sure, TELK will find a bottom sooner or later. But there is no telling when that might be. Probably it will not be anytime this year, but we will have to wait and see if chart support holds; it looks very much in doubt to me:

stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[df][pa14.30][vc60]&pref=G

A good short entry would be the 60 ema:

stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pc60][vc60]&pref=G

T
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