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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Brendan W who wrote (21284)5/27/2005 2:22:07 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) of 78507
 
Brendan Watt, okay, following you into Reebok.

Small exploratory position. I'm going back and forth in weighing RBK as a buy.

Reebok stock's been a lot lower in past two years, and it may drop still from its current relatively high price.

OTOH, the company's been able to increase profit margins every year for the past six. Also ROE has increased every year for the past six. These are significant accomplishments imo. Book value dropped in '96 from '95, but has increased every year since. OTOH, it is (imo) a fashion business with tough competition continually introducing new products. So these good financial numbers work until they don't (if RBK has a bad selling season).

OTOH, the forward p/e per Yahoo is 10.6. That is a relatively low p/e for RBK should the earnings materialize. OTOH, given profit margins of 5%, I figure the stock isn't a great buy either - by my reckoning, maybe a fair value around $45.

OTOH, if the company can continue growing its numbers, the stock will be further undervalued. The company has sold its Polo operation to Ralph Lauren; that should free up some cash, maybe focus management a bit more, and maybe improve financial ratios.

I conclude for me it's iffy, but worth a very small bet now, willing to increase it if or as stock continues to drop.

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Fwiw, still holding SCNYB in this sector. It (the A shares) hit a new low today. I'm waiting - not willing to add shares or sell at this time.

finance.yahoo.com
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