| | imo TA is basically a form of magical thinking, like voodoo. like any form of magic, the "truths" posited by TA have no basis in reality--they are just names somebody made up for describing what happened in certain instances in the past (data mining). they do not elicit underlying, repeatable causal mechanisms, so they have no predictive value.
that is why the people who make the most money, the most consistently, in TA are the people who sell their TA "systems" to others. one of the ingenious sales techniques, when a customer suffers losses after using a system, is to blame it on the customer for their poor "understanding". the solution which may be offered is for the customer to spend another $3000 for an exclusive "advanced" seminar to deepen his understanding of voodoo, er, TA.
you may have heard the old saw about the newspaper ad which reads, "Learn how to make tons of money easily. Send $15 to this address with a self-addressed, stamped envelope...". if you are lucky enough to get a reply, it reads, "Put an ad in the newspaper which reads, 'Learn how to make tons of money easily. Send $15 to this address with a self-addressed, stamped envelope...'"
there's an excellent chapter on the subject in Niederhoffer's Practical Speculation.
Now, as far as your "once again, TA fails" is concerned, TA operators such as myself fail all the time, but TA as such? Hardly.
thank God commercial airplane pilots don't have that attitude. but then, their discipline is based on rational science.
the above is just my opinion. i don't expect to change yours. good luck--enough people practice TA that a certain small percentage will do well thanks to probability distributions (luck), so maybe you can be part of that group. |
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