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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (64415)5/30/2005 1:45:25 AM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Mq,

Re: 1981-85 --

This was the last great period of unemployment in the U.S. I saw my wages cut in western Oregon by about 40% from 1979 to 1981. This was typical of every independent construction contractor in the region. Sure, the school teachers kept right on making a pittance, but the more dynamic sectors of the regional economy certainly crashed. The timber industry never recovered to pre-crash levels.

Fortunately for the people of Oregon, high tech came to the rescue in the form of "Silicon Forest" in the mid to late 1980s. Jobs lost in the primary extraction industries were replaced by new high-tech jobs. Not for the same individuals, of course.

1981-90 was a period of severe stagnation in Central Oregon, which is where I'm presently located. The lumber and millwork industries collapsed, and nothing came to the fore to replace this dying industry. Today, we are witnessing a remarkable phenomenon. Growth in retail and commercial construction is at an all time high, largely driven by the migration of well-heeled retirees from more crowded and urban locations. It's a region that is destined to continue to grow, due to inevitable demographic pressures in the region. But it's based on population surpluses in other locations, and the recreational amenities in this area. There is no basic industry to speak of. Something that doesn't seem to trouble anybody to any great extent.
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