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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (163292)	5/30/2005 11:03:57 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Very astute analysis.. But I would mention that my conversations with Iraqis (many of them who were forced to flee under Saddam and later returned as linguists) overwhelmingly stated that previously there was less religious strife in Iraq and most people considered themselves Iraqis, rather than identifying themselves along religious lines. The religious schism has been amplified by the vacuum of power in the post-Saddam era as religious elements on BOTH the Sunni and Shiite sides have sought to seize political initiative. Which is why we see Sunni/Salafist militants bombing Shi'ite mosques (desecrating the Koran?), while Shi'ites and the Mahdi army have been targeting Sunni/Salafist militants. Somewhere in the future the government must emphasize quasi-secular rule in order to find a suitable compromise and religious equilibrium between the parochial interests of the religious leadership on both sides. Had the US occupation been a success, it could have been a rising tide that lifted all boats, including the Sunnis. For one, the "occupation" legally ended when the Iraqis formed an interim government and approved the continued presence of coalition forces (also sanctioned under UN authority). The Bush administration as been astute in stating that the Iraqi govenment (including the currented elected one) has invited us to remain until social order has been restored. But I would hope that Bush and Rice are emphasizing that the US presence is contingent upon the Iraqi government getting its collective act together. We certainly should let them know that we'll not stand being caught in the middle of a religious civil war and that we stand ready to leave them to their own devices should we continue to see political intransigence on either side. It's crucial that neither Sunni or Shi'ite perceive that they can take a continued US presence for granted. Hawk

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