SUMMARY:
- Stocks struggle all session, fail in late rebound attempt
- Consumer confidence rises unexpectedly, business confidence sags.
- Chicago manufacturing drops sharply.
- Ten year bond undercuts 4% on Chicago data, foreign buying
- Stocks fade on rising volume to start new week, but most stocks holding near support.
- ISM report turning out to be key as more and more see just two additional rate hikes.
SP500 struggles once more as techs, small caps show relative leadership once more.
SP500 opened just below 1200 and fell just as they did from that level last Friday. An afternoon rebound attempt pushed the large cap index back to 1197.50, close to 1200, but once more proximity to that level sparked some selling. SP500 sold off in the last hour, closing at the session low as it was unable to fend off the selling sparked at that level. Talking with some NYSE floor traders, they indicated a lot of the last hour fade was due more to month end shuffling than any real return to selling; based on their orders they were just seeing swaps from some sectors to others, something rather common the past few month ends.
Stocks struggled from the open with SP500 acting as an anchor chain on the other indices. After a half hour of selling, however, consumer confidence came in significantly stronger as expected, and the Chicago PMI was significantly less than expected. That was the right combination for investors and stocks climbed off their lows with NASDAQ moving to a session high over the next half hour. Then a wave of selling hit and it was back to new session lows. SP500 then provided some help, holding the April high and allowing stocks to build into the afternoon with NASDAQ actually turning positive. Then the late wave of end of month selling hit and money was pulled and moved around. That is what took a decent recovery back down.
Volume was heavier, but of course, after the Friday volume it would have been hard not to beat those levels. Still it was the highest NYSE volume in two weeks and was thus was not an insignificant increase. Technically it was distribution, but with it being month end and seeing the up and down action intraday, we are not obsessing over the higher trade, particularly with most of the leading stocks holding up very well. We won't forget about volume of course; after this month end shuffling we want to see it return to its healthier action shown on this move higher. |
