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Strategies & Market Trends : Playing the QQQQ with Terry and friends.

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To: ds1975 who wrote (527)6/1/2005 9:03:29 PM
From: Walkingshadow  Read Replies (1) of 4814
 
Hi ds,

Interesting idea, I have not looked at that.

Here is the chart:

stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pb30!b50][vc60]&pref=G

It looks to me like over the last year, the 30 sma has crossed back up through the 50 sma on 3 occasions: June and Sept. 2004, and just recently.

The first occasion last June was followed by a rally lasting about a week or so, then a rather intense correction of about 14% over the next 6 weeks down to the V-bottom reversal of early August.

The next occasion in September was different. After the crossover, we saw just a bit of pullback over a week or so, then a powerful rally that took the index from about $34 to about $40 (over 17%) over the ensuing 10 weeks.

As of today, we have a new crossover:

stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[db][pb30!b50!f][vc60]&pref=G

So on the two previous occasions in the last year, I'd say that 30sma/50sma MAX scenario worked out once, and didn't work the second time.

T
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