John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: macavity who wrote (7149)	6/2/2005 6:39:29 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) of 33421

Something fishy? Bonds have broken out 10Y<4.00% and stocks are rallying. I am sitting on my hands waiting. I continue to believe that the equity markets are in denial. Supposedly the reduced likelihood of a rate rise is deemed as a good sign. Perhaps, but not in a deflationary backdrop This stock rally has been on decreasing volume *but is still advancing*. We have reached a stage where we could very easily get a blow-off in stocks, so good luck to anyone catching a top. This stock rally (as all rallies do for us bears) has gone on longer than I would have imagined, but that is why I choose to plan and not to predict. The cyclical and transports are underperforming for now so I guess not everyone believes that good times are around the corner. My IT oscillators for the NDX are o/bt, but for the $SPX/$OEX they are only midrange (and rising) indicating that any down-cycle (should one exists) is not necessarily close i.t.o. time. LT trends are 'more bearish' for the Naz, so that is where my sights are geared for now - a turn down on the WEEKLY chart, a bear-cross on the MACD-histo and we should be on our way down, IMO. -macavity

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