Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (64565)	6/5/2005 12:23:57 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) of 74559

TJ, I meant we as in the SI 'we'. I do agree that lawmakers are slow to do anything about bubbles (ie the current one in real estate) until after the bubble gets popped. This one will rival the Japanese real estate bust, I think, for several reasons: 1. US real estate market larger 2. Americans have less personal savings to fall back on, and are mor leveraged with charge cards. I also think the real estate bubble is worse than dotcom because with dotcom there was a decent supply of new shares to sop up demand, with housing the spike could be narrower and steeper as there are less available properties and real estate is more illiquid. It looks like the trasury yield can drop a little more. Since the 30yr fixed mortgage is a smidgen over 5% (5.09% on Bankrate.com) this thing could really start to bubble. The summer is pretty big for real estate. People on holiday buy vacation properties and many people move in the summer when kids are off. Oh, how much more they can buy at 4.75% than 5%! D

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