RE QQQQ:
The weekly chart shows a decidedly bearish candle from overbought territory at the upper BB rail, with early sell signals (OBV and Williams):
139.142.147.218
Using a fast stochastic setting, a sell signal looks imminent, and note also that QQQQ is at the upper regression channel rail:
139.142.147.218
The major moving averages are now modestly upsloping; the first one below is the 200 sma, which currently sits at $36.89. Not far below that is the 50 sma, currently at $36.35. Both represent support levels, and so potential reversal points.
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iLg!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
The BBs are now extremely expanded, and need to contract. Note on this chart also that the middle of the BBs sits at $37.23, which is not far above the 200 sma at $36.89:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pb200!d20,2!f][vc60][iLg!Lyb20,2.0]&pref=G
I see significant chart support at about $36.70:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pb20!a36.70!f][vc60][iLg!Lyb20,2.0]&pref=G
On the weekly chart, this level also coincides with the 20 sma:
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[de][pb20!a36.70][vc60][iLg!Lyb20,2.0]&pref=G
The middle of the medium-term regression channel sits just below $36 and is dropping gradually; this point also represents support:
139.142.147.218
So.... my read from just the charts and technicals tells me QQQQ is headed down. Support levels I see from top to bottom are:
Middle of the BBs: $37.23
Chart support: $37.00
200 sma:$36.89
Chart support: $36.70
50 sma: $36.35
Chart support: $36.00
Middle of the regression channel (medium-term): about $35.85
Lower BB rail: $35.27 (and sharply rising)
I think QQQQ will drop down at least to chart support at $36.70, and may well fail at that test and go on to test the 50 sma. If the 50 sma doesn't hold, then we are looking at a test at $36.00, then the middle of the regression channel just below, then the lower BB rail, which should rise quite a bit by then if this scenario pans out. I think the chances we'll test these lower levels are very remote, but we'll have to see how the volumes develop as QQQQ trades down.
T |
