I would not make any assumptions based on 40 more men in the USMC in April.
They missed their enlistment quota three of the last four reported months and April's increase may be due to reenlistments rather than enlistments.
The USMC is presently 620 men understrength. 2,620 if you include the recent 2,000 man pending increase in authorized strength.
Let me correct USAF.
USAF is down 20,000 men in 10 months. But, they are still 1,200 overstrength. Obviously that is about to change.
USNAV strength dropped 1,250 men in April to increase their shortage to 1,400. Recall, I predicted months ago once the Navy got down to their authorized strength level, they would not be able to replenish their ranks.
I don't think we will hear any more bragging by USAF and USNAV in the near future about meeting enlistment quotas.
The effects of these shortages are the big problem. The problems are the overload it places on the current troops, and the deleterious effect on morale to read about manpower shortages especially to those members heading back for second and third tours and their families. Retaining more misfits, as the Army is planning to do, is certainly not going to help.
Total DOD endstrength is down nine months in a row. More worrisome is the rate of decrease is still accelerating.
We no longer have to worry about whether history will repeat itself. It has.
Once again enlistments have dropped precipitously in the third year of a war. It has always been so.
I believe the two most important subjects our strategists must understand are Geography and History. So far they have earned an A in the first,and a D in the second.
We are entering what is traditionally our best recruiting season. That also makes it the season of the most discharges.
I expect the net losses to continue. I base that on the trend and on the previously announced, dwindling recruit pipeline.
Added: One figure we are not seeing is light duty. I bet we have at least 20,000 men on active duty in non-deployable, light duty status due to war wounds and injuries. IMO they should be included in the loss column.
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