Eric,
Thanx for the posts. Nice to breathe some life into the Thread.
In the interim not everyone is going to want a converged device due to the tradeoffs usually attendant with same. Do you have a view on that or how Apple will fare against the converged device challenge?
Speaking for myself, converged devices will sell well when they are simple, but provide complete services. I prefer standalone devices, generally, because the experience tends to be richer, but simpler, or both.
I loved the iPod because of iTunes, the SOFTWARE made the player the better choice among hardware choices.
I wanted to bring up this example by way of getting the Thread to think a little about our founding principles, ie the Gorilla Game, and other adjuncts, such as the Innovator's Dilemma. The example centers on Apple's iPod, not their PC business.
1. The MP3 player is a discontinuous innovation, unseating portable players like the Sony CD walkman.
2. The iPod is by far the best selling version of MP3 players.
3. Itunes is proprietary architecture, open to non-MAC users who employ Windows-based PCs. Itunes only works with iPods; switching away from the iPod to another MP3 player represents a high cost, to me.
4. The value chain is becoming extensive; Apple, Hitachi, Motorola, Bose, BMW, U2 and iPod commercials, marketing relationships between vendors (Pepsi) and Apple giving away Itunes, etc., etc.
5. Barriers to entry are low, for other manufacturers; yet they haven't been able to displace iPod's strong position.
According to your BW link, Apple sold 5x as many iPods this year as compared to the previous year............Tornado???
The more I think about it, iPod may well be a Gorilla. iPod has crossed the chasm, well beyond being purchased by just the early adopters, Eric and Merlin notwithstanding. (I think it safe to assume Merlin does not have an iPod). Ipod is clearly in the mainstream, and has become a mass market phenomenon.
The strength of Apple's iPod, I think, is their software. Therefore, this gorilla position is rooted in applications technology used by consumers. I do consider the MP3 player to be a type of disruptive technology, having disrupted CD players, and other older media forms favored by Mike Buckley and his ilk, such as 8-track tapeplayers, etc. What is interesting is that disruptive technologies often start at the low end and evolve upwards (Japanese dirtbikes, hydraulic backhoes). IPod was originally an expensive, elitist device, and broke thru to the masses by evolving downward. Very interesting.
Apollo |
