PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End? Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End?

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (723)	6/7/2005 9:17:41 PM
From: kryptonic6	Read Replies (1) of 1183

This does not answer my question why you believe that "we're past the point where increasing fuel efficiency is going to do diddly shit" Every indication is that global peak is going to happen within the next 5 years (and probably sooner than later), and we're going to be dealing with a roughly 2% (or more) shortfall per annum every year post peak. I'm assuming you grant this point. So, we would have to increase fuel efficiency to the extent that it decreases demand 2% every year permanently just to stay even - even though oil demand INCREASES by 1.5-3.0% per year, and even though the median lifespan of an automobile is 17 years meaning it would take a couple decades to transform our entire automobile fleet to these fuel efficient cars, and even though building 200 million fuel efficent cars would take an astronomical amount of energy we won't have when we're enduring shortages far more catastrophic than the ones we couldn't handle in the 1970's without relying on swing producers... In a nutshell, the coming fuel shortages will be far too great for increased fuel efficiency to alleviate the problem to any noticeable degree. A wholesale change of lifestyle and reorganization of society is required (i.e. localization and community cooperation). Also see Jevon's paradox: "The contemporary significance of the Jevons paradox is seen with respect to the automobile in the United States. The introduction of more energy-efficient automobiles in this country in the 1970s did not curtail the demand for fuel because driving increased and the number of cars on the road soon doubled. Similarly, technological improvements in refrigeration simply led to more and larger refrigerators. The same tendencies are in effect within industry, independent of individual consumption." www-dse.ec.unipi.it Jesse

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