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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (1470)6/7/2005 11:10:55 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (3) of 2955
 
MP3 Players: Thinking it Through ...

--Mike,

<< I realize that the iPod can't be used without the iTunes and vice versa, which renders it a closed architecture to that extent. >>

Yes. To me that's closed. Quite closed ... quite inflexible ... quite limiting ...

... or so it seems to me at this stage of thinking about this market and where I think it might be headed near term.

<< I thought the software allows people to hook their iPods up to their computers and stereo systems and this is a particularly advantageous benefit to the consumers. If I'm right (maybe I'm wrong), it's an open architecture to that extent. >>

Yes. For those that like wires and cables and don't mind being tethered in this increasingly unwired age, basically there is USB and FireWire connectivity from the iPOD Dock connector to a Windows PC or Mac and an optional stereo connection kit. Going once step further if you have transferred tracks from your CDs or vinyl to your PC using Windows Media Player (or Music Match Jukebox in my case) iTunes lets you convert them, so you can listen to them in iTunes or on your iPod. Pretty soon there will even be a mobile phone or two from one manufacturer to play the tune on. That's about the extent of the open nature of iTunes right now.

What's missing in this mobile wireless age on the iPOD connectivity frontier?

Bluetooth is missing. WiFi is missing. Our choice of EDGE or WCDMA or 1xEV-DO is missing. The capability to transfer an iTune to the MP3 enabled mobile device of our choice -- which might not be a Motorola ROK'R-- is missing, even if I want an unconverged device in addition to a mobile device. The near term capability to take delivery of an iTune to a mobile device OTA is missing. It is why I wouldn't consider an iPOD right now, and still use a combination of CDs and HDDs as my preferred storage media and increasingly WiFI for connectivity and it is why I think Apple is about to have its lunch eaten again, like most proprietary (closed) systems usually get their lunch eaten, even if they establish early market leadership. Proprietary open technologies have enough challenges which is why we see so few gorillas.

Those are just preliminary thoughts, and I'm still thinking this through but right now I see the MP3 market as a Royalty Game and look at Apple as a King that is about to be challenged and under siege with the advantage to those that are more open.

Best,

- Eric -
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